One of the original main aims of Putin’s “Special Military Operation” was to dislodge Hyper nationalist Zelensky from Presidency and instead install a pro-Kremlin ruler who wouldn’t align with the West and wouldn’t become a member of NATO. This it was hoped would minimize and/or eliminate geopolitical security threat emanating from the West since then the NATO wouldn’t be able to use geostrategic Ukrainian territory to place Nukes along Russian borders.
Plus, Putin wanted to liberate Eastern Ukraine consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk regions mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians who have had been subjected to ruthless human rights abuses and attendant violence by allegedly neo-Nazi Kyiv regime in past.
Russian military had launched on 24th February, 2022 multi-prong military assault and entered suburb areas of Kyiv, the capital. But, then after days of dilly-dallying retreated on 6th-7th of April, 2022 giving respite to Zelensky in addition giving a chance to Western propaganda machine go ballistic against Russia. Simultaneously, it had captured Kharkiv and Kherson regions, thereby creating a land corridor connecting mainland littoral Russia with Crimea via Mariupol.
Meanwhile, Putin proceeded to give concessions to Zelensky. First, he withdrew military forces from doorsteps of Zelensky in Kyiv Oblast region unlike Indian army capturing Dhaka on 16th December, 1971 Indo-Pak War.
Second, he agreed to not dislodge Hyper nationalist Zelensky from power.
Third, his military didn’t use their resources whole-heartedly that otherwise happens in any full-fledged military hostility. They behaved like self-restrained elder sibling who would try to use minimum possible force to coax younger sibling into accepting elder's policies.
All this, it appears Putin hoped shall persuade Zelensky to come to negotiating table and accept creation of free nation -States of LPR and DPR or their accession to Russia if a referendum decided so.
However, softness displayed by Moscow has variously been misinterpreted as Russian military’s weakness both by Zelensky regime and the West, thereby leading to current stalemate.
Rash, obstinate, and politically immature Kyiv regime seems to have decided to not negotiate no matter even if whole Ukrainian land is smashed by Russian missiles and artillery fire, urban centres are reduced to piles of rubble, and thousands of innocent Ukrainian lives are lost to satisfy elitist Zelensky regime's hyper-inflated egoism, vanity, and hyper-nationalism.
To be fair to Moscow, they haven’t shown any greed to gobble up whole of Ukraine contrary to the Western hyper-propaganda, hyper-hysteria, and hyper-obsession with anti-Kremlin ideas. They have primarily restricted themselves to the task of liberating LPR and DPR from clutches of Kyiv just as Indian military had freed up Bangladesh (erstwhile East Bengal) from yokes of Bhutto's Pakistan.
Fortunately, there was no social media in 1970s which could have been misused by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto against Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi unlike today when a dictator such as Zelensky has used/misused social media to the hilt to convert his image of an incompetent ‘Global Joker' into ‘Global Hero' in the eyes of the Western countries.
Russian military hasn’t invaded or attacked the USA, Germany, UK, France or any other European nation-State. Yet, amusingly the whole of Europe, NATO bloc countries, the USA and the entire West has risen against Russia by openly strengthening Ukrainian military in terms of supplying arms and ammunition to latter consequent to deft public relations exercise by actor-turned politician Zelensky. This has unfortunately only buttressed Putin’s earlier claim more that the double-standard West, especially NATO is out to destroy Russia lock, stock and barrel.
With erstwhile USSR having collapsed on 26th December,1991 under rainbow of 'Glasnost and Perestroika' of Mikhail Gorbachev and WARSAW PACT’s end on 25th Feb, 1991 there actually is no raison d’etre for NATO since this Western military alliance was basically created on 4th April, 1949 to counter communist bloc which later formed WARSAW PACT Alliance on 15th May, 1955 headed by erstwhile USSR. Therefore, logically speaking, there was no need for the West to encourage Zelensky to join NATO that is anathema to Russian political leadership. But, then the USA appears to have seized this opportunity to try and weaken Russia militarily in an attempt to safeguard American geopolitical ambitions to remain the only Superpower in the world.
The preceding geo-analysis clearly underscores importance of two factors that are mainly responsible for current stalemate in Russian-Ukraine military conflict: the Western countries using Zelensky as a proxy, and Russian leadership’s lackadaisical soft attitude.
If unfortunate ongoing blood-bath on Ukrainian soil has to be quickly stopped, the West must stop arming dogmatic Kyiv regime. Or Russian political and military leadership have to give up their impractical romance with idea of winning against Ukraine by using military resources half-heartedly. Even beginners studying military geography know that 'all is fair in love, diplomacy, and war.’
Confronted with an unyielding Kyiv regime, Russian military have no option except to stop treating Ukrainian military with kid-gloves in ongoing conventional military tussle where they can’t take risk to use Nukes for obvious sensible reasons.
Russians have to pre-empt Kyiv’s every move. They have to stop/disable entry of military aid being sent into Ukraine by Kyiv’s friends.
Taking a leaf out of rule-book of the West and Kyiv themselves who are using all fair and foul means against Russia, Moscow has to use all options available on the table such as cutting off energy supply to whole Europe during winters to compel their citizens to mount pressure on their respective governments to stop supply of arsenal to Ukraine. Already, positive results are there from Russian perspective. Citizens in European countries such as on streets of Vienna, Austrian capital recently protested on 12th September, 2022 against their government to lift economic sanctions against Russia in order to enable opening of Nord Stream gas pipeline.
Russia can no more any longer afford to behave softly while the West, NATO, the USA, and Kyiv regime continue to use every resource, every opportunity, and every place to undercut and undermine Russian military capabilities in their global geopolitical and geostrategic stratagem.
Notwithstanding recent hasty Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv region in north-east Ukraine leaving on 10th September, 2022 Izyum and Kupiansk, the two vital supply hubs into hands of advancing Ukrainian army that claimed to have retaken more then 3000 square kilometres around Kharkiv a reversal which is just a minor setback to Russian army, let’s not live in geopolitical fools' paradise.
Let’s focus on existing ground realities rather than wishful thinking unlike most Western analysts who are unrealistically dreaming of collapse of Russian military. This minor setback also dubbed “regrouping” by Russian military leadership could indeed be a blessing in disguise to Russian military since they would not be there as sitting ducks to be shot which they otherwise would have been with overstretched supply lines during coming winter in Kharkiv region.
Let us face the ground reality - Russian military shall never exit without accomplishing stated objectives of liberating LPR and DPR since it still possesses fighting capacity and military resources. Those who don’t accept this grim geopolitical reality are only causing more losses of precious lives of Ukrainians, and Russians on and off battle-fields besides horrible destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. It’s Ukraine and not their friends who shall have to ultimately pay through their nose for decades to come to rebuild their life once the clouds of military hostilities give way to the sunshine of peace.
The West must realize Ukraine-Russia military confrontation must now be brought to a quick end. Adding fuel to fire is only backfiring in terms of unacceptably high level of economic hardships for all, especially for European common people. The West must facilitate creation of LPR, DPR peacefully and cool down hot-minded Kyiv regime.
- Dr Swaamee Aprtemaanandaa Jee
(The writer is an acclaimed Scientific Healer, yoga/ayurveda-Practitioner, Spiritual/Research/Political Scientist, Gynaecologist, Epidemiologist, Geostrategist, economic-Geographer, Geohumanist, and citizen-Economist)
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