A NEW STUDY INVOVING i-T/r-P Rate INDICATES COVID19 MAY GET ERADICATED FROM INDIA BY APRIL, 2021 TO JUNE 2021
My this brief scientific theoretical research paper proposes to put forward a new yet very simple concept of RISK-PERIOD (r-P) or IMMUNIZATION-THRESHOLD (i-T) to help policy makers implement effectively Anti-Covid19 immunization programs.
Formulae for calculating r-P/i-T =
Total number of territorial population (TP) divided by total number of territorial population covered by immunization program (CP)
OR
r-P/i-T = TP/CP
Example: 130 crore/30 crore = 4.1/3
If CP is taken to be a period of one month, it means a r-P/i-T rate of 4 months and an additional period of one month (and not 1/3rds of a month or 10 days as may seem otherwise) in above example as we will see in succeeding narration.
Here, we have assumed a month to consist of 30 days for sake of simplicity and easy understanding.
EXPLANATION
In the illustrative example given above, it shall take 4 programs and 1/3rds of a program to cover a population of 130 crore people to reach territorial immunization.
In other words, it implies all possible effective measures need be taken to ward off COVID19 for next 5 months (4 months and an additional one month) from the date of first dose of Anti-Covid19 vaccination or inoculation, given the second dose is administered 28 days after the first one. For example, first dose is given on january 1. Then, follows period of 28 days which means 1+28=29 or 29th of January. After 28 days which means on 30th day or 30th of January the second dose shall be administered.Thus, the complete process of a single immunization program takes 30 days.
IMPLICATIONS
There are several far reaching implications of r-P/i-T rate.
To recall the example given above, it means governing authority must ensure no crowding takes place at public spaces for next 4.1/3 programs or 120+30=150 days from the date of first dose of first immunisation programme. Four cycles each covering 30 crore shall be able to cover 120 crore number of people.
Here, 1/3 is misleading. This 1/3 has to be taken as one full unit of immunization program. It is so because it shall take 30 days for completion of entire cycle of immunisation process whether people to to be vaccinated are 30 crore or 10 crore.Therefore, it shall take 30 days to complete the process of immunization for remaining 10 crore people once 120 crores have undergone four successive immunisation programms.
Implication of illustrative example given above is that not only public-spaces such as markets, etc, but working-spaces such as factories or Information Technology (IT) sector companies, etc, too need be devoid of crowding or gathering of people. In other words, IT sector and other work organisations must let their workforce remotely work from safer environments of their own houses instead of asking them to attend to their office-work by physically coming to offices of these organisations for next 5 months or 150 days from date of administering first dose of Anti-Covid19 vaccine. Anticovid19 vaccines such as Covaxin, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, etc,
require two doses to be administered with a gap of 28 days.
Theoretically and practically speaking, COVID19-RISK shall have almost subsided to zero/nil level or less than 1% after a period of 150 days as calculated by r-P/i-T formulae in view of nearly whole territorial population having been vaccinated within this entire period.
Each governing authority can work out r-P/i-T Rate for population under its territorial jurisdiction such as a countrisal jurisdiction covered by a country's governing authority.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR BHAARTEEY/INDIAN GOVERNMENT
Indian population as on 7th of January, 2021 stands at 138.72 crores. Indian government is reported to have indicated covering of 30 crore population in each immunization programme with Anti-Covid19 vaccination roll out beginning on 13th of January, 2021. Further, Maharashtra government have expressed confidence to complete the process of administering first dose of Anti-Covid19 vaccine within 10 days from the receipt of Anti-Covid19 vaccines by it.
r-P/i-T Rate for India
138.72/30=4.624 or 4.62 programs
Thus, r-P/i-T Rate of 4.62 or 4.6 implies two possible viable case-scenarios for India:
(1) 4×30 days=120 days+30 days= 150 days +10 days of first process completion= 160 days
(2) 4×10 days=40 days+10 additional days=50 days+ 30 days from first vaccination on last day of 5th process-completion=80 days
In the first scenario, underlying assumption is administration of first dose of Anti-Covid19 vaccine to only 30 crore people in every 30 days. In second scenario, underlying assumption is continuous nonstop supply of 30 crore Anti-Covid19 vaccines every 10 days to be administered over a period of 10 days. Second scenario is the best possible case-scenario that is highly unlikely though not impossible to achieve. Of course, numerous other possible case-scenarios exist, too.
If Indian policy-makers execute the first case scenario starting with 13th of January, 2021, they would be required to ensure stringent Anti-Covid19 safety measures remain in place for next 160 days until 21st of June, 2021. In second case-scenario, it shall have to effect these
measures for next 80 days (10+10+10+10+10+30) until April 02, 2021.
It invariably implies several possibilities for India in terms of eradication of COVID19 for time being: COVID19 may get eradicated by 2nd of April, 2021, or by 21st of June, 2021. Also, it may get eradicated ina period anywhere between April, 2021 and June, 2021in India if other intermediary case-scenarios follow. In other words, it may get eradicated even by end of May, 2021 in India!
~Dr Swaamee Aprtemaanandaa Jee
(The writer is a Scientific Healer, yoga-Practitioner, Yoga and Spiritual Master, Research Scientist, Gynaecologist, Epidemiologist, citizen-Economist, and well known for informative analytical pieces on Healing, Spirituality, Yoga, Fitness, Health, Medicine, Ayurveda, Science, Economics, and Politics)
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